Tyler Linderbaum Contract Extension Projection

No 5th Year Option Due To Archaic Position Designations Almost Guarantees An Extension

The Ravens declined the 5th year option for center Tyler Linderbaum earlier this offseason. It made sense to. The team was looking at a $23,403,000 option price, according to Over The Cap, for the talented offensive lineman because that’s how the league sees him for the purposes of the calculation.

He isn’t considered a center in the formula. He is considered an offensive lineman. As such, his 5th year option is predicated on the salaries of offensive tackles such as Tristan Wirfs and Penei Sewell. If Baltimore were to exercise the option Linderbaum would immediately become the highest paid center in the league by over $5 million.

And so, as of right now, he is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Linderbaum has played well over his first three years in the league. He has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of the past two seasons. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 3rd best center in the NFL last year, after ranking him sixth in each of his first two seasons.

His best skillset is his run blocking where he has helped the Ravens offense to top 10 finishes in EPA/rush in every season since he entered the league in 2022.

As a pass blocker, he can still have some trouble with pure power from strong bull rushes, but he is a savvy player who pairs great footwork with smart angles.

Projections

The models I use look at a variety of factors including age, draft pedigree, playing time, pressures and pressure rate and pressure quality allowed, pressure rate allowed in true pass sets and a variety of run block grading from PFF. I apply this over two timeframes: the past three years as well as the most recent season independently.

The three-year model is very bullish on Linderbaum. It predicts his APY to come in at 6.27% of the salary cap. Applied to this year’s $279.2 million figure that would equate to $17.51 million. The platform year model is a little more conservative, citing some small setbacks in how many quarterback hits were attributed to him as well as steps back in his pass blocking in true pass sets and blocking on gap run plays. That model has him at an estimate of 5.60% of the cap as an APY - $14.52 million APY.

Setting those numbers as the ceiling and floor of his projections, respectively, set him up immediately to be between the second third-highest paid center in the NFL. Creed Humphrey is currently the top paid pivot at $18 million per year, with Cam Jurgens in 2nd at $17 million and Drew Dalman in a distant 3rd at $14 million. All three of those deals have come in the last 12 months.

Comps

Using these as our benchmarks we can directly compare Linderbaum’s 2022-2024 to Humphrey’s 2021-2023 and Jurgens’ 2022-2024 to get a sense of where his APY should fall within this range.

Humphrey clearly sets himself apart here, especially as a pass blocker. Humphrey also had two Pro Bowl nods heading leading up to his record-setting contract, plus a second team All Pro on his resume. Linderbaum does not have the All Pro selection.

Given all of this, Humphrey’s APY should be just out of reach. But the Jurgens contract may still be a hurdle that can be cleared. Because Jurgens started his career in a reserve role as part of an embarrassment of riches for the Eagles, comparing the two players’ 2024 seasons should inform who will win out in APY.

Linderbaum clears Jurgens in almost every measurable way. This lends itself to putting him right in the center of Humphrey’s $18M APY and Jurgens’ $17 million mark. That lines up almost exactly with the $17.51 million estimate from the three-year projection.

Structure

The Ravens tend to push for longer-term and both Jurgens and Humphrey locked in for four-year extensions. It makes sense for Linderbaum to follow suit. That would put the new money total at $70,000,000 with his total payout including cash owed this year at $72,510,223. For structure I used Roquan Smith’s deal as a template.

This structure would be strong on cash flows for him as he would get 58% of the new money by the second new year of the deal. It would also keep him just ahead of Humphrey in cashflows through that time frame.

Including the cash already owed for this season, Baltimore would total this deal at a $14,502,045 effective APY. That’s a reasonable number for them and not too far north of Dalman’s effective APY with Chicago.