Sam Darnold Early Contract Projection
An Early Look At Some of 2025's Top Free Agents
With just five weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, values are starting to refine for upcoming free agents. I thought it might be fun to highlight a single top-of-the-market player at each position and give an early projection on potential contracts for each.
Quarterback - Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings
This year’s free agent quarterback class doesn’t have the same luster as last year’s with Kirk Cousins headlining a class that also included Baker Mayfield. Darnold is firmly in the Mayfield tier with Russell Wilson looking to be the consolation prize this year.
Darnold has had a career resurgence for the now 10-2 Vikings under the tutelage of head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Darnold is in the midst of a solid season having thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns. And while he has an elevated number of turnover worthy plays at 18, his big time throw rate of 6.4% is second only to Josh Allen. In an age where defenses are hyper focused on limiting big plays downfield, Darnold is one of the few passers showing he can push the ball downfield.
As I mentioned before, Darnold profiles similarly to Mayfield as a former first-round pick who had been cast off, and moved through multiple franchises before finding a stable organization that could provide a strong support system for him to work within. And as Mayfield has begot Darnold, Geno Smith begot Mayfield the year prior as patient zero for the new quarterback middle class.
One of Darnold’s closest comps is 2023 Geno Smith. Smith signed a three-year, $75 million contract that year after throwing for 4,535 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to go along with 35 big time throws and 31 turnover-worthy plays.
Projecting out Darnold’s full season stats would have him with 4,182 yards, 33 touchdowns, 14 interceptions with 35 big time throws and 26 turnover worthy plays. The two are of a very similar ilk. It would stand to reason that Geno’s deal will have a heavy influence on Darnold’s eventual contract with his next team looking to minimize risk with a three-year term that gives the team flexibility if he regresses while providing him with a solid, if unspectacular by quarterback standards, payday.
Smith’s $25 million per year average represented 11.12% of the 2023 salary cap, which was $224.8 million. If Darnold were to get that same rate on next year’s salary cap, which I project to be around $275 million, it would equate to $30.58 million per year. But Mayfield shifted that “middle class” market forward last year with his three-year, $100 million deal that set his APY at 13.05% of the 2024 salary cap.
Darnold will likely push to do the same this year. Based solely on this year’s performance-to-date he will likely advocate for a valuation of his services at $40 million per year. I believe he and his next team will compromise at $35 million per year for a total value of $105 million. That would put him between Smith’s 11.12% and Mayfield’s 13.05% at around 12.72% APY as a percent of cap.
Smith’s deal came with 36.4% of his deal fully guaranteed. Mayfield once again pushed that number forward, getting 40% of his deal fully guaranteed. Darnold should get around that rate at $42.5 million guaranteed to him at signing.
Projection: Three years, $105 million - $42.5 million fully guaranteed